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Consistency of Credit Ratings in the Russian Banking Sector

Student: Shipilova Valeriya

Supervisor: Victor A Lapshin

Faculty: Faculty of Economic Sciences

Educational Programme: Economics (Bachelor)

Year of Graduation: 2018

The research work is concerned with the study of credit rating inconsistencies based on the data of the Russian banking sector between 2010 and 2016. The ratings by the national scale of seven rating agencies, three of which are international, are considered in the research. The main aim of the work is to determine the degree of consistency between the ratings assigned by rating agencies. For this purpose, such analysis tools as Kendall's Coefficient of Concordance and Saaty’s Consistency Index were used. Also, an analysis was conducted to identify uncoordinated cycles, taking into account various combinations of agencies. In the course of the work a number of hypotheses are considered and several questions are raised, the answers to which present the results of the work. Based on the results of the work, the credibility of the NRA estimates was questioned due to the slower and weaker reaction to market changes, and the fact of the shorter life expectancy of the uncoordinated cycles of the "Expert RA" was revealed, which indicates a greater sensitivity to changes. The necessity to take into account the level of inconsistency in decision making by users of the rating was proved, and also options for further research on this topic were suggested in the work.

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