Does Inequality Lead to Wars: an Emperial Analysis

Wars have persisted through time as well as war-proneness of states. Existing explanations of involvement in interstate conflicts neglect two important factors: \textit{economic inequality} as a long-term determinant of individuals’ behavior and \textit{political regime} —— a set of institutions, conveying political decisions. I build a formal model of a political elite’s decision to engage in an interstate dispute, accounting for inequality and regime conditions. The results show, economic inequality is non-linearly connected to war-proneness of states, increasing the probability of war engagement under medium levels of inequality. Political regime dramatically affects this relation: medium economic inequality makes democratic regimes more inclined to wars, as compared to respectively autocratic states.