• A
  • A
  • A
  • ABC
  • ABC
  • ABC
  • А
  • А
  • А
  • А
  • А
Regular version of the site
For visually-impairedUser profile (HSE staff only)Search

Research of the Factors That Determine the Accident Rate of Individual Drivers and Prediction of Probability of Getting Into an Accident

Student: Eduard Aiuntc

Supervisor: Ivan Stankevich

Faculty: Faculty of Economic Sciences

Educational Programme: Economics (Bachelor)

Year of Graduation: 2018

In the paper, the problem of revealing the factors influencing the probability to get into an accident is investigated. It’s relevant as in the insurance business it can be applied for setting a car insurance premium as current psychological tests and personal dossier do not allow to cope with moral hazards issue which can be handled via differentiating of insurance premiums for risk-averse and risk-takers depending on recent driving style. The main hypothesis of the paper is that driving style characteristics can be used for determining chances to get into an accident. There is no business implementation yet as insurance companies have no access to such data. So, the novice of the research is the method that is proposed for measuring the riskiness of driving style - from ride tracking data via kinematic sensors installed on a car. Tested machine learning algorithms allow to achieve 99% accuracy of identification of accident on a daily data and up to 50% of accidents happening next month are predicted having only current week’s aggregated tracking data. Main insight from the research is that logistic regression is performing as well as more advanced algorithms, and they blended together give 0.72 AUC and 0.77 F1-score for next month accidents forecasting, and variables like the fact of a crash during the current week, maximal speed and frequency of braking are enough for obtaining such result.

Student Theses at HSE must be completed in accordance with the University Rules and regulations specified by each educational programme.

Summaries of all theses must be published and made freely available on the HSE website.

The full text of a thesis can be published in open access on the HSE website only if the authoring student (copyright holder) agrees, or, if the thesis was written by a team of students, if all the co-authors (copyright holders) agree. After a thesis is published on the HSE website, it obtains the status of an online publication.

Student theses are objects of copyright and their use is subject to limitations in accordance with the Russian Federation’s law on intellectual property.

In the event that a thesis is quoted or otherwise used, reference to the author’s name and the source of quotation is required.

Search all student theses