Predictive Ability of Indicies of Changes in Bank Lending Conditions

Student: Gadzhiagaev Shamil

Educational Programme: Economics (Bachelor)

Year of Graduation: 2018

Credit conditions surveys organized by central banks are important data source for loan market analysis. In this paper we propose an analysis of usage of these surveys in foreign countries and features of this survey in Russia. Also in this paper the predictive ability of indices of changes in bank lending conditions is checked. The responses of the lending survey are a significant leading indicator for bank credit, real GDP and some of it components growth. In general, using models based on the data of the Central Bank survey allows to improve the analysis efficiency of economic processes in Russia. This area of research is particularly relevant in the context of the analysis of the effectiveness of monetary regulation measures and the effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism.

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