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Student
Title
Supervisor
Faculty
Educational Programme
Final Grade
Year of Graduation
Anna Volkova
Measuring of Fiscal Policy Effectiveness in Russia Using Government Spending Multiplier
Economics
(Bachelor’s programme)
2018
Fiscal policy is one of the main tools of state regulation of the economy, it affects the further socio-economic development of a country, so it is important to know whether the state's fiscal policy is effective or not. Such information is needed to understand how correctly and in a timely manner the economic decisions are taken and implemented. However, there are a few works on this topic using Russian data, and there is also no consensus in the academic literature on the assessment of the effectiveness of fiscal policy.

This paper estimates the effectiveness of fiscal policy in Russia for the period 2005-2017 by calculating the multiplier of government spending using the SVAR model. I set the following tasks: to study the methods of calculating the multipliers of government spending and their analysis in different models, to make a review of changes in government spending in Russia to understand the economic situation in the country, to compare the values of multipliers in different works and countries, to calculate multipliers based on Russian data.

I identify the structural model using short-term constraints, consider both quarterly and monthly data and include five variables in the model: GDP, government spending and revenues, inflation and interest rates that was not done in other works on Russian data.

The main result of this work is to get the values of the impact multiplier of government spending for months data that stays at the level of -0.227, it is 0.038 for quarters, the cumulative multiplier of government spending is 0.256 for one year and the same multiplier for three years is 0.328 that indicates the low effectiveness of fiscal policy in Russia.

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