• A
  • A
  • A
  • ABC
  • ABC
  • ABC
  • А
  • А
  • А
  • А
  • А
Regular version of the site

Mathematical Modeling of Sports Competitions

Student: Ziborov Ivan

Supervisor: Valery Afanasiev

Faculty: HSE Tikhonov Moscow Institute of Electronics and Mathematics (MIEM HSE)

Educational Programme: Control Systems and Data Processing in Engineering (Master)

Year of Graduation: 2018

The purpose of this work is to write algorithms that determine the probability of outcomes of sports confrontations based on the input parameters. As part of the thesis students Zibrov Ivan, Polyakova Tatiana And Kashirtsev Daniel were collected data on the last 5 seasons of the sports in question using a parser written in Python 3.6.1. Goals in football and points in basketball were matched with the corresponding statistical distributions and the hypothesis of belonging to these distributions was tested. For a hierarchical set of points in a tennis match, a probabilistic model based on the Markov chain was considered. With the help of the revealed regularities, algorithms were built that simulate the probabilities of all required events. Checking the results of the algorithms revealed weaknesses that need improvement. All the defects were corrected with the help of multivariate regression, which allowed to bring the model to the required level of quality.

Student Theses at HSE must be completed in accordance with the University Rules and regulations specified by each educational programme.

Summaries of all theses must be published and made freely available on the HSE website.

The full text of a thesis can be published in open access on the HSE website only if the authoring student (copyright holder) agrees, or, if the thesis was written by a team of students, if all the co-authors (copyright holders) agree. After a thesis is published on the HSE website, it obtains the status of an online publication.

Student theses are objects of copyright and their use is subject to limitations in accordance with the Russian Federation’s law on intellectual property.

In the event that a thesis is quoted or otherwise used, reference to the author’s name and the source of quotation is required.

Search all student theses