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Modeling the Solvency of Companies in the Aviation Industry Using Statistical Methods

Student: Vlasovets Oleg

Supervisor: Tatyana Bogdanova

Faculty: Graduate School of Business

Educational Programme: Business Informatics (Bachelor)

Final Grade: 8

Year of Graduation: 2018

Nowadays the problem of real-time forecasting the loss of enterprise solvency in the aviation industry remains relevant because of the volatility of the economic situation in Russia in recent years. The statement is confirmed by the fact that a number of large airlines have left the market. This work provides the estimation of a financial condition of some leading airlines of Russia based on domestic and foreign techniques of bankruptcy diagnostics. Information base of the research is made up of the data taken from the SPARK-Interfax and Thomson Reuters information systems, as well as from open sources and financial reports of air carrier companies. Due to the absence of a consolidated data source reflecting both financial and non-financial indicators of enterprises, a proprietary database was developed that provides the collection, storage and retrieval of information from 2002 to 2017 required for the requested analysis. A comparative analysis of the solvency of Russian air carriers was carried out using a number of foreign and domestic methods, which made it possible to conclude that the best forecast is provided by the domestic methodology that takes into account industry specificity. The influence of non-financial factors that are not taken into account in the considered models is revealed. The analysis made allows comparing the results of forecasting obtained with the considered methods to the non-financial characteristics of the air carrier's activity, such as the share of the market for passenger traffic, the organizational structure and the company size.

Full text (added May 16, 2018)

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