Research of Cryptocurrency Market in Bifurcation Conditions

The main objective of the work is to develop models for predicting asset bubbles in the cryptocurrency market under uncertainty. The object of the study will be the cryptocurrency market. The object of the study will be the cryptocurrency market. The subject of the research is the tools of the market of crypto-currencies. The tasks we set for ourselves include: analysis of historical dynamics of cryptocurrency prices and assessment of the current situation; review of existing methods for detecting and modeling financial bubbles; development of an algorithm for testing and modeling the financial bubble in the cryptocurrency markets; analysis of the results of tests for the definition and modeling of cryptocurrencies. The first Chapter defines the concept of” financial bubble", the cryptocurrency market and analyzes its past dynamics. The second Chapter describes the main methods of determining and modeling financial bubbles. In the framework of the third Chapter analyzes 17 top cryptocurrencies by market capitalization according to coinmarketcap portal. The following uses the PSY method to determine the financial bubbles for each cryptocurrency. After that, the log-periodic law of force (LPPL) model is used to model the asset bubble in the cryptocurrency market in 2017, and the future dynamics of this bubble for each of the cryptocurrencies is predicted. Within the framework of the study, it was determined that in 2017 there was indeed an asset bubble in the crypto – currency market, which ended in December 2017-January 2018. Also, it was determined that this was not the final of it, as for 60% of cryptocurrencies as the results of THE LPPL model showed, the bubble continues its development and the next sharp decline in prices for the entire cryptocurrency market is expected in 1 – 1.5 years.