The Determinants of Russian Banks Bankruptcy in Modern Conditions

Given work is devoted to the study of bankruptcy factors of Russian commercial banks in modern conditions. The relevance of the topic is caused by the fact that more effective forecasting and prevention of bankruptcies requires the information about what factors affect bankruptcy in the modern banking sector. The purpose of the work is to study the features of the Russian banking sector and identify the main factors affecting the probability of bankruptcy. The study period covers the years from 2010 to 2017, which were divided into two separate periods to identify possible differences in the determinants of bankruptcy. In the course of the work, logistic regression models were constructed. According to the results, for both periods, the Bank's bankruptcy was found to be dependent on the following financial variables (in relative terms): the Bank's balance profit, the amount of equity, the amount of overdue debt. For the variable associated with equity, the presence of a quadratic dependence is revealed. In addition, the size of the Bank was significant. The importance of economic and institutional variables depends on the study period. A significant role in the allocation of the determinants of bankruptcy of Russian banks is played by the quality of banking reporting, which has improved since the introduction of the policy of recovery of the financial sector.