Development of a Production Enterprise Simulation Model for Financial Characteristics Management

The work is concerned with examining the issue of scenario planning for production enterprise development, aimed at its transition to the desired future financial state, using the agent-based simulation model. The key tendency, describing the performance of the enterprise, being analyzed, involves the growth of the cash gaps, which generally arise when the net outgoing cash flow exceeds the net incoming cash flow. The current state of the organization is characterized by the lack of liquidity and the low level of its financial stability. Therefore, the preferred future financial state of the enterprise should be presented by the absence of the cash gaps and the maximum possible level of the profit, gained as a result of the execution of the number of contracts included in the portfolio. Scenario planning of the organization’s future development is focused on identification of the conditionally optimal scenario, which is a production program that ensures both minimization of the cash gaps sum and maximization of the profit during a particular period. Comparative study of the enterprise financial characteristics modeling methods resulted in selection of the agent-based modeling approach. Verified requirements and the formal business model, considering the problem of minimizing cash gaps of the enterprise, served as the foundation for development of the model by the means of the simulation modeling tool. Derived conditionally optimal scenario formed the basis for working out recommendations, aimed to support the transition of the production enterprise to the desired future financial state, and preparing a particular managerial solution by filling in the form of the document, designed to confirm the manufacturing schedule. Research findings can be applied while identifying the development scenarios for a standard production repair enterprise.