Analysis of Tensions between Countries, Depending on the Availability of Water Resources

In this paper I have examined how availability of water resources impacts political relations among the UN countries. This thesis is based on the hypothesis that availability of water resources has influence on political cooperation among countries and can lead to political conflicts. The aim of the thesis is to analyze how availability of water resources impacts political relations among countries and to forecast what might happen between countries whose territories are located on the same source of fresh water. To confirm the hypothesis, a database was collected on the availability, quality and consumption of water resources in the UN countries, as well as the database on political conflicts among countries over the past seventy years. We also investigated the quality of fresh water resources based on the water quality index developed by the Yale University Laboratory for Fresh Water. Water use standards of the World Health Organization (WHO) have been studied, and the degree of conformity of the UN countries to the standards of fresh water consumption has been analyzed. Based on the data obtained, the Index of water consumption, reflecting the correspondence of water consumption to the WHO standard, was derived. The degree of influence of the lack of water resources on the political situation among countries was analyzed. Individual cases are considered, formed from groups of countries having a common source of fresh water resources, as well as countries that used to have political misunderstandings and conflicts due to lack of fresh water, or having them now. The statistical analysis has been performed, because of which positive linear relationship between the lack of water resources and political tension between countries located on the same river basin was discovered. Scenario analysis was conducted, which examined countries located in the basin of large rivers, to identify the degree of influence of countries on each other.