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Software Implementation of the Mathematical Model of the Epidemic Situation Based on Statistical Data

Student: Anastasiya Aleksandrova

Supervisor: Yulia Grishunina

Faculty: HSE Tikhonov Moscow Institute of Electronics and Mathematics (MIEM HSE)

Educational Programme: Applied Mathematics (Bachelor)

Final Grade: 10

Year of Graduation: 2018

Abstract Finding the optimal parameters of model that reflect current situation in the locality is an important stage in the use of epidemic models for prediction the evolution of diseases. This paper describes the software implementation of the epidemic model SIR + A and the approach of finding the model optimal parameters using statistical data. The computer program allows to analyze the incidence of acute respiratory viral infection and influenza in the regional territories and districts of Moscow city, provides possibility of automated minimization of the objective function, estimation of the main optimal parameters and performs comparative analysis and displays the corresponding graphs. The parameters found are used to construct estimates of the number of sick people in a particular period of the epidemic situation. This automated process of processing statistical data and calculating parameters has allowed a quick and efficient analysis for all the district territories and districts of Moscow represented in the array. The results obtained are descriptive and they can be used for further analysis of the epidemic situation in Moscow. The program is included in the State Register of Computer Programs and can be implemented in research projects.

Full text (added May 22, 2018)

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