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Commodiry Price as Foreign Exchange Rate Fundamental

Student: Ksenia Ladygina

Supervisor: Andrey G. Shulgin

Faculty: Faculty of Economics

Educational Programme: Economics (Bachelor)

Year of Graduation: 2018

This work reveals the impact of the price of exported natural resources on the dynamics of the exchange rate. In modern conditions, more and more countries are making a choice for free floating of their national currencies, however it is wrong to talk about the reduction of the role of the exchange rate in the system of economic policy. The instability of the world currency markets is considered by developed countries as a serious problem, the solution of which requires coordinated efforts in the field of monetary policy. The ongoing shifts in parity between major world currencies and their justification in terms of fundamental processes in the world economy are the subject of the heated discussions at the highest level. In its turn, in the conditions of developing and transition economies, an even more important task is assigned to the regulation of the exchange rate. There are various methods for assessing the significance of dependent variables in the analysis, but multivariate statistical analysis and econometric research are needed to estimate the prices of exported natural resources as a fundamental factor in changing the exchange rate. Unlike previous studies, the methodology of this work includes multidimensional modeling, which allows you to take into account the effects of the influence of fundamental factors, and time dependencies.

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