Statistical Analysis of the Administrative Distortions Influence on Russian Parliamentary Elections Results

Результаты кластеризации подтверждают выводы, полученные на результатах 2011 года. Все участки с присутствием наблюдателей принадлежат первому кластеру, что только усиливает полученные результаты. Важно понимать, что несмотря на визуальное равенство размеров кластера “без искажений” и “умеренных искажений”, синий кластер намного плотнее, количество избирательных участков, отнесённых к кластеру “без искажений” равно 2810, а к кластеру умеренных искажений” отнесено только 486 наблюдений. На выборах в “подозрительном” одномандатном округе наблюдаются такие же паттерны, подтверждающие полученные результаты. Electoral fraud is widespread happening, particularly in developing country. Election fraud helps autocratic leaders to remain in power and show their strength to citizens and opposition party. The failure of political struggle is associated with anti-growth policies: lower capital expenditures, higher taxes and a diminished likelihood of applying the right to work laws. Convincing recognition of the amount of election fraud is a methodologically complex task. Large part existing studies identify the existence of fraud and its correlates, but do not estimate the extent of fraud. The method developed in this work have shown their effectiveness in detecting distortions but require a strict understanding of the specifics of the analyzed voting and the behavior of voters or, as shown in this work, the criterion or conditions capable of separating distortion in the election from the strategic behavior of voters. The application of the methods of analysis at Russian parliamentary elections in Moscow showed that the elections of 2016 were much fairer, compared to the elections of 2011. These conclusions are confirmed by the reports of the OSCE and nongovernmental organizations.