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Measuring Financial Stability in Russia

Student: Zhiltsova Anastasia

Supervisor: Svetlana Seregina

Faculty: Faculty of Social Sciences

Educational Programme: Public Administration (Bachelor)

Final Grade: 8

Year of Graduation: 2018

An aggregate financial stability index for Russia assessing four dimensions of financial stability (financial development, financial vulnerability, financial soundness and global financial climate) is constructed. The proposed index can predict the financial crisis in short term (i.e., in a year, as it is shown in case of 2008 financial crisis in Russia). The validity of the index was tested using a regression model with specific for Russian financial sector predictors of financial instability. The quality of the model was proven to be satisfactory. The evidence on strong influence of the US stock market on the value of the index emerged. In addition, the indicators of soundness of the public finance showed weak relation with the index. The paper proposes the compensatory role of the Stabilization fund and the underdeveloped government securities market as possible factors for their low explanatory power.

Full text (added May 25, 2018)

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