Models of Recession Forecasting

Student: Usmanov Eldar

Educational Programme: Economics (Bachelor)

Year of Graduation: 2018

After the global financial and economic crisis of 2008, which began with the bankruptcy of the largest American investment bank Lehman Brothers, economists received a large share of criticism related to the failure of their methods of forecasting economic recessions. As a result, the interest of the scientific community in dating and forecasting economic crises has increased significantly. Consequently, two main questions arise: - What symptoms should pay attention by researchers to predict recessions? - Is it possible to develop a model that clearly indicates the approach of the economy to the dangerous line? In order to get answers to these questions, it is necessary to solve the following problems: - highlight the common symptoms that led to economics recession on a historical scale; - highlight the most effective and inefficient models used to forecasting recessions

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