Dependence of the Main Indicators of the Labor Markets of Russian Regions on the Degree of Their Diversification

This work is devoted to the study of the degree of diversification and specialization influence on the main indicators of the Russian labor market, particularly, the growth of unemployment. The main goal of the work is to find out which spatial effects dominate in the regions (Marshallian or Jacobs effects) and whether this predominance is constant for different time intervals. The following hypotheses were formulated: the dependence of the unemployment rate on the degree of concentration or diversification is non-monotonic due to possible overlapping effects of urbanization and localization; the direction of the degree of concentration or diversification influence on the level of unemployment depends on the time period. A review of the literature on the assessment of the unemployment dependence on spatial concentration or diversification is provided. A comparative analysis of dynamics of indices of diversification and concentration calculated on the basis of value added and revenue is carried out. The usage of a nonparametric model for simulating the effect of concentration (diversification) on the level of unemployment is substantiated. The methodology proposed by Wood is used to evaluate additive models with smoothing based on splines (Wood, 2006). It is shown that in Russia, depending on the period, various effects dominate: in 2008-2010, and 2013-2016 localization effects predominate, while in 2010-2013, Jacobs effect dominates. The influence of the Lillien index (the index of structural shifts), share of population below and above working age, GRP per capita in base prices of 2000, share of urban population, share of population with higher education, coefficient of migration growth, population density, unemployment rate at the initial time and и weighted neighboring unemployment on unemployment rate in different time periods (from 2007 till 2016). Key words: concentration, diversification, unemployment rate, localization effects, urbanization effects.