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Assessment of Efficiency of Insurance System

Student: Siuzanna Oganian

Supervisor: Alexander Skorobogatov

Faculty: St.Petersburg School of Economics and Management

Educational Programme: Applied Economics and Mathematical Methods (Master)

Year of Graduation: 2018

The objective of this research is the assessment of technical efficiency of insurance companies in the Republic of Armenia for which the following tasks are defined: • To analyze the current situation of the insurance market of RA, • To model the forecast of an indicator "insurance premiums / GDP" characterizing development of the insurance market of RA on the basis of quarterly data of 2010-2017 on an algorithm of exponential smoothing of time series. • To describe some parametrical and not parametrical methods of efficiency assessment of economic entities' activities: Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) methods, • To estimate technical efficiency of Armenian insurance companies for 2013-2016 by methods of DEA and SFA. According to the Holt-Winters Multiplicative forecasting method, the share of insurance premiums in GDP in the first quarter of 2018 will reach up to 1.52%. In the fourth quarter will decrease up to 0.58%. It means that insurance premiums will grow on average. As the trust to insurance companies gradually increases (cold calls, active advertising …), it is supposed that growth of insurance premiums will be due to voluntary insurance. In the frame of work, the comparative efficiency of insurance companies of RA has been estimated by Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) method for 2013-2016 and the Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) method. Technically effectively operating insurance companies in every year are revealed. As DEA gives both sources (resources, results), and the extent of inefficiency of the organizations, therefore each inefficiently operating company separately has been given corresponding instructions on how to achieve the same result by reduction of resources. At the same time, it is noticed that year after year the distance between estimates of the companies is reduced. This circumstance demonstrates that either over time insurance companies become more comparative, the competition increases.

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