Elections as Simulations of Civil War Outcomes

Student: Algina Anna

Educational Programme: Joint HSE-NES Undergraduate Program in Economics (Bachelor)

Final Grade: 9

Year of Graduation: 2018

Electoral systems should be successful in conflict managing. Electoral outcomes must work as signals of potential civil war outcomes so the loser in the elections accepts the fact that he lost and doesn't try to challenge the electoral outcomes through a military conflict. In this paper elections are perceived as the simulations of civil war outcomes. The results show that when technologies of elections and military conflicts are similar, that is, the resources necessary to win a civil war must be applied in the same proportion as the resources needed to win the elections, break out of a war is not likely. However, the more technologies of elections and military conflicts differ from each other, the higher is the probability of a war.

Full text (added June 4, 2018)

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