• A
  • A
  • A
  • ABC
  • ABC
  • ABC
  • А
  • А
  • А
  • А
  • А
Regular version of the site

Educational Programme
Final Grade
Year of Graduation
Anastasiia Tiagun
Potential Improvements of Sales Forecating Practice in Retail: the Case of Wilko Retail LTD
(Master’s programme)
Sales forecasting is vital for any company, especially in retail. Although the importance of promotional sales forecasting is recognized by all retailers, only some of them utilize professional software, sticking to simpler ad-hoc methods. Even specialized forecasting softwares are often implemented by external contractors who disregard the specifics of the company and its business, which results in a poorly performing forecasting model. The companies though prefer not to change the model, but to use extensive manual corrections, taking extra time and creating a new source of errors.

This study focuses on the case of Wilko Retail Ltd, one of the UK largest household and homeware goods provider, and namely the improvement of its forecasting procedure.

In agreement with the company three objectives were specified:

• Development of a new forecasting performance procedure;

• Evaluation of the currently applied model and identification of improvement opportunities;

• Development of solutions to the identified bottlenecks and their integration into the model.

The outcomes of the project include:

• A new forecasting performance assessment procedure measuring not only accuracy, but also bias of the model;

• A model, outperforming the their system by 3.22%, while requiring less historical data, not involving any manual adjustments and providing the best results at the periods important for any retailer: Christmas, New Year and Easter.

Such innovation is vital for Wilko facing problems both in the market (growth of competitors, increasing turnover bringing no additional profits) and macroeconomic situation (Brexit, introduction of a national wage, depreciation of the sterling) because it would become a source of considerable cost savings due to the improvement of the whole distribution and replenishment systems. These cost savings will contribute to its cost cutting initiative launched in 2017, while still saving Wilko employees’ jobs.

Student Theses at HSE must be completed in accordance with the University Rules and regulations specified by each educational programme.

Summaries of all theses must be published and made freely available on the HSE website.

The full text of a thesis can be published in open access on the HSE website only if the authoring student (copyright holder) agrees, or, if the thesis was written by a team of students, if all the co-authors (copyright holders) agree. After a thesis is published on the HSE website, it obtains the status of an online publication.

Student theses are objects of copyright and their use is subject to limitations in accordance with the Russian Federation’s law on intellectual property.

In the event that a thesis is quoted or otherwise used, reference to the author’s name and the source of quotation is required.

Search all student theses