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Designing Early Warning Systems for Currency, Debt and Financial Crises Using Bayesian Structural Models

Student: Alexander Trofimov

Supervisor: Oxana A. Malakhovskaya

Faculty: Faculty of Economic Sciences

Educational Programme: Applied Economics (Master)

Year of Graduation: 2019

This paper construct and explore new approach for Early Warning Systems. First, a brief introduction of modern crisis theory and EWS approaches was described, highlighting crucial points for constructing modern EWS. Second, a new EWS approach based on PLS-SEM was described and estimated, it was shown than such approach afford to construct different model with respect to observed and unobserved heterogeneity. In the end shown how the results of estimation can be used for crisis prediction.

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