Insurance in the Banking Sector: Market Volume Forecasting

Insurance in the banking sector, which was originated in Europe in the twentieth century, started to develop in Russia only in 2006. Nevertheless, since 2016, the growth rate of bancassurance has reached about 150% per year, and the banking channel has become a driver of the entire insurance market. In connection with the growing importance of bancassurance, the risks associated with its functioning are increasing. Despite the fact that bancassurance is well explored in foreign countries, there are only theoretical works devoted to this phenomenon in Russia. The purpose of this work is to predict the volume of the bancassurance market in Russia and determine the prospects for its development. With the use of factor modeling and ARIMA modeling, the volumes of the bancassurance market in 2018 and 2019 were predicted. Market growth is expected to remain high, but lower than in recent years. This will be influenced by the expected slowdown in growth of lending and increase of deposit profitability, as well as because of increased market control by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.