Statistical Analysis of Factors Determining the Effectiveness of Public Procurement in the Russian Federation

The author of this work analyzes the factors that determine the effectiveness of public procurement in the Russian Federation. The study itself was divided into two parts: the first part encompasses the competitive types of procurement, and the second part is devoted to the non-competitive type of procurement — purchases from a single supplier. Initially, an aggregation of the public procurement efficiency index is carried out using the principal component method, an analytical hierarchical process, expert opinion, and equal weighting. Also in this part of the work, the author conducted cluster analysis on partial generalized indicators. In the second part of the study, the dynamics of the share of purchases from a single supplier in the period 2014–2018 was studied. Following a preliminary analysis, the author built several ARIMA models and made a forecast for 2019 based on the best model.