Financial Sustainability Analysis and Bankruptcy Probability of Russian Aviation Industry Enterprises

The goal of the research is to create a comprehensive financial sustainability assessment toolkit and a bankruptcy forecasting model for aviation industry enterprises. To achieve this goal, the following tasks were formulated: systematization of theoretical approaches; the creation of a data set of 18 operating enterprises, 18 bankrupt companies and economic indicators from 2009 to 2017; comparative characteristics of existing models; checking the significance and quality of the constructed regression. Chapter 1 discusses the various points of view on the definition of financial stability and highlights the most preferred method of assessment, implying the analysis of financial statements. Chapter 2 reveals the concept of bankruptcy and identifies two groups of the best forecasting models - discriminant and regression. Chapter 3 makes an assessment based on the coefficient method, checks existing models of the probability of bankruptcy, develops and tests own tools. The model was tested for quality, showed good predictive power and the best results in the period equal to two years, which generally makes the model usable. Final qualifying work consists of 82 pages, including 9 figures and 20 tables.