Transformation of the EU Policy in the Field of Natural Gas Supply in the Context of Modern US Energy Diplomacy

To identify and assess the US influence on the EU’s energy policy, author conducts a comprehensive analysis of the EU’s natural gas supply policy from the point of view of international relations theories (geopolitics and neoliberalism). The main risks to energy security still include high dependence on imports (six countries receive natural gas exclusively from Russia), an unstable geopolitical situation. After analyzing the underlying documents, the concept of “energy dominance”, we can follow the evolution - from a softer approach to energy diplomacy (dialogues with the EU within the Energy Council, training, technical assistance) to the tough and uncontested approach of the current US administration (direct funding of projects aimed to reduce the dependence of CEE countries on Russian energy supplies, the creation of a fund to counter Russian influence, the threat of sanctions on "Nord Stream-2" project). To identify factors influencing US energy diplomacy on European natural gas supply policy, author conducts a case analysis of the following events: the US shale revolution, the Nord Stream 2 project and the development of the EU-US Energy Council. Based on the theoretical substantiation of the dissertation research and the analyzed cases, the author develops seven criteria, which include a set of factors that potentially allow the US to increase its influence (or vice versa) on the EU in the field of energy policy. Using the scaling method, the author develops a model according to which evaluates the selected factors, conducts a quantitative and qualitative analysis and concludes whether the factor is conducive to the United States to increase its influence. Further, the author develops and describes the dynamics of the development of the EU-RF energy dialogue under the influence of the US energy diplomacy factor, namely relations in the short, medium and long term.