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Higher Education as Social Norm: Statistical and Econometric Analysis of the Phenomenon of Higher Education Expansion

ФИО студента: Belenko Elizaveta

Руководитель: Marina Telezhkina

Кампус/факультет: Faculty of Economics

Программа: Economics (Bachelor)

Год защиты: 2019

The objectives of this research work are: understanding the phenomenon of massification as a fundamental change in the system of higher education; econometric analysis of the mutual influence of the proportion of people receiving higher education in Russia, with explanatory variables for the short and long term.     This work consists of two parts, according to the separation of objectives. The first chapter of the final qualifying paper presents: definitions of terms such as massification and globalization of higher education; the causes and consequences of the expansion of higher education; Trends in the development of higher education in the near future. The second chapter is devoted to research related to building an ARDL and ECM model and building a forecast of the dynamics of the proportion of people receiving higher education for the short and long term, as well as evaluating the ARIMA model with its prediction. As a result of the study, the considered trends in the development of higher education in the near future will help to become a driver in the transformation of education and improvement of its quality. In the future, students will be expected to have a high capacity for new discoveries in the field of technology, if we focus on the development of the proposed trends. Factors theoretically related to the proportion of people receiving higher education in Russia were studied using the analysis of annual time series. Empirical testing did not reveal significant short-term effects. However, in the long run, the dependent variable is influenced by the number of state universities, as well as the share of non-state universities that have been licensed. In response to dramatic changes in the variables considered (not including the share of government spending on higher education), the proportion of people receiving higher education slowly (at a rate of 9%) adjusts and returns to its equilibrium long-run equilibrium, this effect is statistically significant. Also, with the help of the ARIMA model, a forecast for the future was constructed, which speaks of the stationarity of the movement of the enrollment rate of people receiving higher education until 2020.

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