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Methods of Probabilistic Modeling and their Applications to the Analysis of the Connection of Maternity with Labor Activity in Russia

Student: Dmitriy Gorskiy

Supervisor: Elena Vakulenko

Faculty: Faculty of Mathematics

Educational Programme: Mathematics (Bachelor)

Final Grade: 7

Year of Graduation: 2019

In this study, a probability of the second child birth by Russian mothers and the duration of the interval between first and second birth were analyzed based on data from RLMS HSE (from 2008 until 2017). It was proved that the Heckman selection model cannot be used for the interval between births analysis. By comparison with other studies was proved that monthly wage of a mother has a negative impact on a probability of the second birth and on a hazard function of the length of the birth interval. Contrary to this monthly wage of husband (if exists) has a positive impact on the research objects (both explanatory variables are highly significant).

Full text (added May 31, 2019)

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