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Application of Mathematical Modeling for Assessment of Preventive Measures Efficiency Based on Morbidity Statistics

Student: Pavel Leonov

Supervisor: Yulia Grishunina

Faculty: HSE Tikhonov Moscow Institute of Electronics and Mathematics (MIEM HSE)

Educational Programme: Applied Mathematics (Bachelor)

Final Grade: 10

Year of Graduation: 2019

The purpose of this work is to estimate the efficiency of the preventive measures held in Moscow during 2016 and 2017. The modification of the classical SIR-model is considered: it takes in account the external factors and the preventive measures. Based on the morbidity statistics gathered from Moscow clinics we estimate the parameters of the model via the least squares method. This process repeats for each Moscow district. The minimization problem is solved with the differential evolution algorithm implemented in the Scipy library of Python programming language. The effectiveness of the preventive measures is estimated for each Moscow district.

Full text (added May 25, 2019)

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