Year of Graduation
Expected Trade and Economic Consequences of Brexit for United Kingdom
The aim of this paper is to identify the trade and economic consequences of Brexit for the UK. The author considered the theory and background of the formation of European Communities. It was revealed that the European integration brought tangible benefits to its participants. It is shown that the success of European integration in the 20th century, the global tendency towards integration, the loss of Britain’s status as a great power were the main grounds for its entry into the EEC. However, in terms of politics, church, law, geography and economics, Britain has always been different from the continental Europe. It was found that such particularities of Britain, as well as the trend to euroskepticism and escalated migration problem led to the victory of «brexiters» in the EU referendum in June 2016. The work explores a completely new phenomenon - a voluntary exit from the largest integration unity, the EU. Legally this exit can be implemented only on the basis of the Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. The author emphasized on the future prospects of Britain's trade and economic relations with other countries, particularly, on three possible models: Norwegian, Swiss and Canadian. It is noted that the Norwegian model agreement may be more favorable for Britain. The author also considers the option of leaving Britain from the EU without an Agreement. However, both in case of Brexit with deal, and in case of no-deal Brexit, Britain might expect a number of negative consequences: slower economic growth, rising trade costs, less investment, reducing of the importance of London as a global financial center, reputational damage, problems with labor mobility and provision of its domestic markets. The only question is the extent of these deteriorations. It is highlighted that it is hardly possible to give any accurate forecasts and fully assess the economic consequences of Brexit because of the high degree of uncertainty that has developed around this process.