Statistical Estimation and Forecasting of HIV Incidence in Russia

As a result of the work, the main characteristics of HIV that affect its spread and probability of infection have been identified. Parameters, the values of which can most fully characterize the epidemiological situation in the region, have been identified. This paper analyzes the various modeling options, indicating the strengths and weaknesses of each method, as well as the specifics of their application, taking into account access to statistical information. To date, the results of forecasting for the regions separately are as close as possible to the real values of the retrospective check by means of modeling the system of differential equations that take into account changes in risk groups and the level of social adaptation. Based on the statistical analysis it is shown that in most regions of Russia the epidemic is in a concentrated stage, in two regions the situation is approaching the stage of generalized epidemic. The impact of socio-demographic indicators on the incidence of HIV in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation has been assessed. It has been revealed that the incidence of HIV is influenced by the incidence of drug addiction, population density and coverage of ART. The economic situation in the region does not have a significant impact on morbidity. Estimated values obtained in the work were used to build a forecast using SI model, supplemented by the impact of ART coverage and age dynamics of the population. The forecast values obtained for 2015-2018 did not differ from the actual values by more than 5.9%. The effectiveness of taking into account the dynamics of the age structure of the population and the coverage of ART is shown.