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Modeling Interregional Mobility of University Graduates in Russia

Student: ViStoriia Moskvina

Supervisor: Elena Vakulenko

Faculty: Faculty of Economic Sciences

Educational Programme: Economics (Bachelor)

Year of Graduation: 2019

The purpose of this work is to explain the directions of interregional mobility of university graduates in Russia. An econometric model was built, based on the gravity model of migration: the number of migrants between pairs of regions depends on a set of regional characteristics of departure and destination territories. The Monitoring of graduates' employability was used as the source of the migration data, containing information on the majority of Russian university graduates in 2013-2015. It was shown that panel data methods are worth applying to the analyzed migration statistics, and also that the use of count data models (Poisson regression) leads to a more precise estimation compared with OLS (according to calculated metrics of prediction accuracy – MAE and MSE). The results have shown that one of the main reasons for the observed post-graduate mobility is the lack of jobs for qualified specialists. In addition, it was detected that some other regional characteristics – high marriage rate and developed system of higher education – are capable of retaining young people in the regions of graduation. At the same time diverse recreational opportunities and effective healthcare system in destination area attract graduates from other parts of the country. The results obtained clarify in which direction the conditions in lagging territories are needed to be improved in order to accumulate human capital, necessary for the start of development in these areas.

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