Mathematical Model of the Dynamics of Protest Movements in the North Caucasus

Student: Ishchenko Anatoly

Educational Programme: Applied Politics (Master)

Year of Graduation: 2019

The master’s thesis examines the dynamics of protest movements in the North Caucasus, using the example of 4 regions: North Ossetia, Karachay-Cherkessia, Dagestan and Ingushetia. Based on the collected empirical data, the author identifies the characteristic features of the dynamics (patterns), as well as on the results of testing models of the Civil Violence mod. 1 and Rebellion, proposes to make significant changes to these models to make them realistic and explanatory component. As a result of the work done, the author managed to achieve the desired result and change the conditions of interaction between agents, introduce network organizations of agents and correct explanatory factors, dividing “legitimacy” and “economic under-appreciation”. Additionally, 3 potential models were announced for further testing in order to explain the dynamics in the region: generic, ethnic, and geographic.

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