Year of Graduation
Evaluation and Forecasting of Stress Resilience of US Commercial Banks in the Post-Crisis Model of Banking Regulation
Commercial banking is a critical part of the financial system in the modern economy, though it is still exposed to a number of risks and threats. In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, an enormous amount of effort has gone into developing a robust and effective system of bank regulation and supervision. As a result, regulatory authority introduced a number of micro- and macroprudential policies aimed at maintaining financial soundness of individual institutions and stability of the whole financial sector. Still there is no consensus on the role of post-crisis model of banking regulation in the United States. The purpose of this research is to assess stress resilience of commercial banks and forecast bankruptcy rate in the US banking sector on the time horizon of one year. To achieve this goal discriminant analysis methodology was applied to a sample of failed banks, as well as to a matched sample which includes healthy organizations. Our results suggest that the regulatory reform approaches are effective in terms of increase in stress resilience of US commercial banks.