Ratings of Technological Projects, Raising Capital through an ICO

Student: Klevtsov Dmitry

Educational Programme: Strategic Corporate Finance (Master)

Final Grade: 8

Year of Graduation: 2019

We investigate the process of ratings modelling for ICO projects. First, we conduct comparative analysis of tools for raising capital, taking pros and cons of the into account with respect to a project's point of view. We decided to use binary logit model to estimate success probabilities of ICOs. The analysis was conducted with the use of hand collected sample of 126 projects (30 more were used later for the comparison). Three models were constructed and compared on the basis of areas under ROC curves. The best model was the one with dependent variable, representing success in investing in a token (1 if adusted ROI was positive, 0 otherwise). Then we constructed a rating with the use of this model over the sample of 157 projects. Finally, we revealed that the constructed rating outperforms ratings from the open sources.

Full text (added May 22, 2019)

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