• A
  • A
  • A
  • ABC
  • ABC
  • ABC
  • А
  • А
  • А
  • А
  • А
Regular version of the site
For visually-impairedUser profile (HSE staff only)SearchMenu

Modeling the Probability of Incurring Past-due Payment in Microlending

ФИО студента: Mariia Achintseva

Руководитель: Agata Maximovna Lozinskaia

Кампус/факультет: Faculty of Economics, Management, and Business Informatics

Программа: Economics (Bachelor)

Оценка: 9

Год защиты: 2019

Microcredit is becoming more common in the Russian market. This area is subject to significant risks of irrevocability of money by borrowers in view of the fact that, most often, individuals who do not meet the requirements of banks resort to microlending. In this paper, modeling and empirical assessment of factors affecting the probability of a borrower failing to return microcredit is carried out. The work evaluated logistic regressions on cross-sectional data on borrowers and microcredits issued to them (August 2012 - September 2018) provided by a microcredit company operating in the Perm Region. It was found that the likelihood of no return of funds after the occurrence of a non-payment situation is lower for pensioners than for the rest of the borrowers. Women were more inclined to defaulting microcredit after the fact of overdue debt. At the same time, it was not possible to empirically confirm the presence of the “infection effect” (the presence of non-payments from related borrowers) and the “debt trap” (repeated taking of money to cover existing debts, which makes the borrower less creditworthy). The findings of the study can be used as a microcredit company that provided data, and other microfinance organizations to evaluate potential borrowers since they reflect the specifics of the Russian microcredit market. Key words: microlending, probability of incurring past-due payment, logistic regression, «infection effect», «debt trap», court proceedings, microcredit non-payment.

Full text (added May 19, 2019)

Student Theses at HSE must be completed in accordance with the University Rules and regulations specified by each educational programme.

Summaries of all theses must be published and made freely available on the HSE website.

The full text of a thesis can be published in open access on the HSE website only if the authoring student (copyright holder) agrees, or, if the thesis was written by a team of students, if all the co-authors (copyright holders) agree. After a thesis is published on the HSE website, it obtains the status of an online publication.

Student theses are objects of copyright and their use is subject to limitations in accordance with the Russian Federation’s law on intellectual property.

In the event that a thesis is quoted or otherwise used, reference to the author’s name and the source of quotation is required.

Search all student theses