The Welfare of the Economically Active Population of the Russion Federation

The relevance of the research topic is that in the modern world, economic science is set with the tasks of a new understanding of social welfare problems. First of all, this is due to the fact that the main characteristic of society at this stage of development is its social orientation. Any economic transformation entails extensive changes in the life of society, therefore, it is worth taking into account not only the economic and social, but also the political, cultural, environmental aspects of the study of this issue. The main source of raising the standard of living of the population, of course, is economic growth, which allows to solve the problem of the disparity between the resources available in the country and the needs of society. The paper discusses the methods and approaches to assessing the welfare of the population. Using the example of the Nizhny Novgorod region, models were obtained for describing and predicting one of the key indicators of the welfare — the average per capita income of the population. A set of economic and mathematical models describing the dependence of average per capita cash income on conditionally controlled factors (the share of cash income allocated to pay compulsory payments and contributions, the number of people receiving unemployment benefits, the cost of the minimum set of food products and etc.). The constructed models allowed to predict the dynamics of average per capita incomes of the population with a lag of 3 to 12 months (forecast errors from 10.8 to 13.3%).