Statistical Analysis and Modelling of Income of Russian Population

The bachelor thesis consists of an introduction, four chapters, a list of references and an appendix. The introduction justifies the relevance of the chosen topic, sets the goal and objectives of the research. The first chapter “Incomes as an object of statistical study,” provides an overview of the dynamics of the level of real disposable income from 2010 to 2019, statistical methods for analyzing the indicator of real disposable income, and the comparison of macroeconomic trends with the dynamics of population incomes for the analyzed period. The second chapter “Analysis of the main determinants of real disposable income of the population” provides an overview of the socio-demographic determinants of the first and second levels and macroeconomic indicators. The regression model and time series models of ARMA, VAR, ARDL were built taking into account external factors (macroeconomic indicators) to identify the nature of the relationship between indicators and based on the analzyed significant indicators of the real disposable income and given the characteristics of the correlation between them to the make the projections of real income of Russian population up to the third quarter of 2020.