Determinants of the Transfer Value of Football Players: Possibilities to Apply the Expected Goals(xG) in the Analysis

Student: Gashev Egor

Faculty: Faculty of Economics, Management, and Business Informatics

Educational Programme: Economics (Bachelor)

Final Grade: 8

Year of Graduation: 2020

Research shows the relation of the statistical metric of the expected "xG" goals to the transfer value of the attacking players. The study is based on a sample that consists of data on attacking football players of the top 5 leagues (English Premier League (England), LaLiga (Spain), Bundesliga (Germany), Serie A (Italy), Ligue 1 (France)) for 2017/18 and 2018/19. From the total number of all players 1279 attacking players were considered. As the main result, it was found that "expected goals" (xG) have a positive effect on the transfer value and lead to an increase in it. This topic has not been raised before and has both theoretical and empirical novelty. The results also show that getting assists also have a minimal positive effect on the transfer value of attacking players.

Full text (added May 12, 2020)

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