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Models of Evaluation of Russian Oil Export

Student: Elizaveta Paskevich

Supervisor: Andrey M. Silaev

Faculty: Faculty of Economics

Educational Programme: Economics (Bachelor)

Year of Graduation: 2020

The final qualification work consists of an introduction, two chapters, conclusion, list of references and appendices. The final qualifying work includes an introduction, two chapters, a conclusion, a list of references and appendices. In the introduction, the relevance of the chosen topic is justified, the purpose and objectives of the research are set, and the scientific methods used in this work are also indicated. The first Chapter "Aspects of forming the structure of oil exports in Russia" describes both the current state of the oil sector in the Russian Federation and the country's export potential on the world stage. In addition, the main leaders in this industry and the main contractors of the country in the world market were identified. The influence of external factors on the formation of oil prices and their impact on the oil industry of the country's economy is considered. In the second Chapter, "Building models for estimating the volume of Russian oil exports", we review the methodological framework for research on Russian oil exports, which identifies patterns of formation and relationships between factors that affect the oil sector of the Russian economy. Moreover, the analysis of sources on econometric modeling of the processes of influence on the export opportunities of the Russian Federation in the oil sector was carried out. This Chapter also presents the results of the study in view of comparing different models to identify the dependence of oil export volumes from several factors, and the analysis of the indirect impact on the performance of the oil sector of the economy, which analyzed models of the relationship between the factors of influence. In conclusion, the results of the study are indicated, namely: the volume of oil exports depends mainly not on the economic situation, but rather on the political decision, since it is difficult to describe the statistical data. However, an additional analysis of indirect influence has managed to build a certain linked chain of sequential impact: the volume of Russian oil exports depends on changes (increases) in the volume of oil production and retains information about its own value in the past period. At the same time, the value of oil production is formed taking into account the volume of oil production in OPEC member countries and the exchange rate of the ruble/us dollar. Also, a high degree of correlation between the price of oil and the exchange rate was revealed, which is justified by economic theory.

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