Stock Prices Fluctuations in the Business Cycle in the Period from 2000 to 2018

Student: Poplevichev Ilya

Faculty: Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs

Educational Programme: World Economy (Bachelor)

Year of Graduation: 2020

This study is aimed at identifying the reasons that stand behind stock prices fluctuations in business cycle, as well as proving the hypothesis that stock prices are affected by the following indicators: country’s GDP, P/E ratio, dividend yield and Shiller P/E ratio. We present a regression model that explains how the aforementioned factors influence the behavior of one of the US’s most important stock market indices – S&P 500 in the period from 2000 to 2018. The results show that the influence of both GDP and Shiller P/E ratio is statistically significant, and they can be used to analyze the situation on stock markets. The findings of this study are useful for the companies which have their stocks traded on the market, as well as for investors to build an adequate investing strategy.

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