Influence of Consumer Lending Growth on Banks' Credit Risks

Student: Mannanov Aleksey

Educational Programme: Economics (Bachelor)

Year of Graduation: 2020

The growth of consumer loans is usually associated with an increase in credit risk for banks, but in an environment of constantly declining personal income it is necessary to understand whether this trend is a natural process of development of the credit market in Russia, or whether banks issue consumer loans to unreliable borrowers. In order to answer this question, this paper assessed the dependence of overdue consumer loan indebtedness of Russian banks on domestic and macroeconomic factors through a logistic regression in the time horizon from early 2013 to the end of 2019. The growth in consumer lending was expected to have a significant impact on banks' credit risks.

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