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The Comparison of Estimates of Hidden Incomes' Scales of Russian Households before and after the Crisis of 2014

Student: Vazhentsev Andrei

Supervisor: Tatyana A. Ratnikova

Faculty: Faculty of Economic Sciences

Educational Programme: Economics (Bachelor)

Final Grade: 9

Year of Graduation: 2020

This study consists of measuring the extent of households’ hidden incomes before and after the 2014 crisis using the microeconomic method proposed (Pissarides and Weber, 1989), using data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey from 2012 to 2016. The novelty of the study is in the expanding of the time span from 1 year to 5 years and in application of the econometric model with fixed effects on panel data. In addition, the number of analyzed categories of expenditure has been increased from 1 to 3. As a result of the realization of the microeconomic approach, it was found that the extent of income concealment decreased after the 2014 crisis, and this trend is confirmed in each of the expenditure categories, even though the values of estimates differed for each. The balance of the panel and the sensitivity of the spending category to sanctions had an impact only on the assessment values, but not on the overall decline trends in the shadow economy. The results obtained confirm the Rosstat's report on the reduction of the shadow economy after the 2014 crisis and the conclusions (Ratnikova and Murashov, 2016) on the inapplicability of food expenses and the applicability of expenses on clothes when implementing the method on Russian data, as well as update the calculations on the scale of income concealment by self-employed individuals up to 2016.

Full text (added May 14, 2020)

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