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Short-term Forecasting of the Main Indicators of Russian Federation Economic Development

Student: Umida Alikhodjaeva

Supervisor: Nikolay Pilnik

Faculty: Faculty of Economic Sciences

Educational Programme: Economics (Bachelor)

Final Grade: 8

Year of Graduation: 2020

In my research, I set out to build a model that will be able to predict the level of inflation in the short and medium term, i.e. the consumer price index, since when obtaining a high-quality model, it will be possible to achieve the target level of inflation based on understanding the degree of influence factors. The first stage of my work is to study the approaches to modeling inflation that were used and tested earlier. This information allows you to take into account the problems faced by other authors, as well as learn from the experience of successful results. In the next stage, the main variables used for building models were presented and described. The choice of methodology was carried out in a practical way. Using the construction of simple regressions, it was found that dynamic growth models cope with forecasting better than econometric ones. Further, regressions describing the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate, the M2 money supply, and the consumer price index were constructed. During the construction, it was revealed which factors and to what extent affect the indicator under study. After analysis and testing, it was found that the obtained models are high-quality, give relevant results, and also well guess the dynamics of the dependent variable. The final stage is the construction of forecasts within the framework of the studied models based on three scenarios: pessimistic, basic and optimistic until 2025. I have obtained the following results: in the case of an optimistic forecast, the economic situation in Russia is recovering rapidly by 2022. The pessimistic forecast also showed the result of recovery, but at a slower pace over a longer period of time.

Full text (added May 14, 2020)

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