Statistical Analysis of the Factors Influencing the Human Birth Seasonality

Student: Gribova Anna

Educational Programme: Economics and Statistics (Bachelor)

Year of Graduation: 2020

This paper aims to investigate direction and nature of the relationship between socio-economic factors and the human birth seasonality in Russian Federation over the 2005 – 2019. Analysis of the oscillation amplitudes will show that fertility peaks are in September and spring. Estimating GWR it is expected to reveal nexus among these factors and fertility seasonality using variables, which are related to the social factors of the mother, the rural population and the housing conditions. Also relying on the fertility policy of the Russian Federation, it could be concluded that the forecast of fertility in the SARIMA model will not be upward.

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