Statistical Analysis of Gold Pricing

Student: Burtsev Alexey

Educational Programme: Economics and Statistics (Bachelor)

Year of Graduation: 2020

Gold is known as the most brilliant precious metal. It is used in making jewellery and technologies. Still gold is an interesting financial instrument. There are a various economic studies and research analyzing the correlation between the price of gold and different economic variables such as GDP per capita growth, real income per capita growth, real interest rate, dollar exchange rate, etc. The main motivation behind all these papers is to reveal whether macroeconomic variables indeed influence gold pricing. However, most studies in the field of factors influencing the gold price are focused mainly on the testing of statistical significance of correlation between macroeconomic factors and the price of gold in combination with describing the underlying logic of the findings. Nevertheless, each of them fail to analyze the pricing of the gold. Gold does not conform to common valuation frameworks used for stocks or bonds. This research shows that gold’s performance can be explained by market equilibrium. In other words, the historical performance of gold is a function of demand and supply

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