The Credit Risk Evaluation for the Innovative Projects in Russia

Economic development is impossible without the introduction of innovation in various fields of activity. In the case of the successful launch of a innovative project, a large revenue is expected. However, high returns on investment in innovation are associated with increased risks. At the same time, neither lenders nor investors have a methodology for assessing the risk of investing money in innovative activities, not to mention the adaptation of this method to Russian realities. In this paper, it will be considered methods for assessing credit risk, which many researchers identify with the likelihood of real bankruptcy, as well as the theoretical aspects of this topic. During the study, a meta-analysis of 40 articles, which were published by both Russian and foreign authors, will be carried out. The result will be a summary table containing factors and the frequency of their mention in research papers. Therefore, a model for forecasting the probability of bankruptcy of innovative projects in Russia, based on logistic regression and the analysis, using the random forest, will be proposed as a tool for investors and lenders. Key words: innovations, innovative projects, credit risk, bankruptcy prediction, logit and probit models, random forest