Freedom of Assembly in Non-Democratic Regimes: Shifts in Policing Methods to Peaceful Protests as Indication of Political Regime Changes in Russia, Ukraine and Belarus

Non-democratic governments consistently look at waves of peaceful protest as a direct challenge against their hegemonic power and stability. Since the turn of the century, a global wave of democratic backsliding has been observed, leading to the consolidation and restriction of fundamental human rights. Thus, more than ever, it is imperative to fully understand freedom of assembly in non-democratic regimes. Through the development of the protest event analysis framework, this research has sought to use the state response to peaceful protest as a barometer to determine and identify its overall regime dynamic. Examining over 61 hours of protest events video footage within Russia, Ukraine and Belarus between the years of 2007 – 2019, this research has sought to understand if a change in policing methods towards peaceful protest can indicate a broader change in the political regime. By developing a new and novel tool in which to examine and codify the behaviours of non-democratic governments, this research advances the current understanding of the effects of regime change. Furthermore, it has provided a new framework in which future analysis may be based upon.