Building a Model for Assessing the Probability of Bankruptcy of Small Businesses

The theme of the final qualification work is Building a model for assessing the probability of bankruptcy of small businesses. Actual research: national projects that provide small business services in GDP according to the data of the World Bank. The report on the study of the development of small and medium-sized businesses indicates that the number of small businesses in emerging markets is about 32.5 per 1000 inhabitants, in Russia this figure does not correspond to 19 enterprises per 1000 inhabitants. With an increase in the number of small businesses, small business is a reliable factor that shows an economic growth in developed countries such as the United States and China. It is necessary to timely determine their participation and the probability of bankruptcy. The object of study is a small business. Subject of research - reporting of small businesses included in the sample The aim of this final qualification work is to develop models for predicting bankruptcy for small businesses. To achieve the goals it is necessary to solve the following tasks: 1. To study the theoretical basis for assessing the probability of bankruptcy of small businesses. 2. To analyze the probability of bankruptcy of small businesses. 3. To conduct an analysis of the choice of companies, identify indicators that affect the likelihood of bankruptcy. 4. To assess the constructed models and compare with other works Research methods: theoretical and empirical methods, analysis, synthesis, classification, analysis of working documents. Empirical research database. Final qualification work consists of three chapters, conclusion and list of references. The first chapter analyzes the criteria for classifying enterprises as small businesses. The second chapter provides a comparative analysis of models for assessing the probability of bankruptcy. The last chapter of the study is devoted to the development of models for estimating the probabilities of small businesses. In order to estimate the probabilities of small businesses the selection requirements were formulated, data collection, review and systematization were carried out. Then, the indicators which affect the probability of bankruptcy were adopted, and two models Logit and MDA were built.