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Dynamics of Fertility and Mortality of the Population of the Republic of Crimea Before and After Inclusion in the Russian Federation

Student: Meri Oganesyan

Supervisor: Olga G. Isupova

Faculty: Faculty of Social Sciences

Educational Programme: Demography (Master)

Year of Graduation: 2020

Considering the current demographic situation in the Republic of Crimea, a number of significant changes can be noted: along with a noticeable increase in the population over the past 5 years, the birth rate remains at a fixed level with a change in gender and age structure and the ratio of urban and rural population. Statistical data indicate population growth due to migration processes: the urban population is growing due to newcomers, mainly older people. Accordingly, there is also an increase in mortality in the region and a natural decline in the population. The main factor in increasing mortality in this case is an increase in mortality from diseases. At the same time, there is an increase in migration of the young able-bodied population from the Republic of Crimea, which in the future can lead to economic stagnation in the region. The object of the study is the regional demographic situation in the Republic of Crimea before and after its inclusion in the Russian Federation. The subject of the study is the dynamics of the main demographic indicators of the population of the Republic of Crimea before and after inclusion in the Russian Federation. The purpose of the study is to evaluate modern demographic indicators in the Republic of Crimea. To achieve this goal in the study it is necessary to solve the following tasks: ● analyze the existing theoretical sources on the problem of the demographic situation in the Republic of Crimea; ● to conduct an empirical analysis of demographic indicators in the region in dynamics (birth rate, mortality, age and sex structure); ● analyze migration processes in the region. Research hypotheses: ● Fertility in Crimea is low due to the unfavorable age structure (“aging” of the population). ● “Aging” of the population is due to the migration of elderly people to Crimea and the migration of young people from Crimea. ● The current demographic situation in the region is due to unattractive economic conditions. The scientific novelty of the work consists in analyzing the demographic situation of the Republic of Crimea for the study period (2005-2018) and identifying factors affecting the main demographic indicators in Crimea (birth rate, mortality rate, life expectancy at birth, age and sex structure of the population, migration processes ) The practical significance of the master's thesis: a detailed analysis of the demographic situation was carried out and the possible causes of the existing age and gender pyramid were identified. The data obtained can be taken into account when developing recommendations on the development of the region from the point of view of attractiveness for the younger generation, and can serve as the basis for optimizing the work of public servants, federal authorities and authorities of the subject. Theoretical and practical conclusions of this dissertation can bring significant benefits to analysts, design research groups, government officials, business structures in planning regional development strategies. The structure of the dissertation consists of introduction, three chapters, conclusion, bibliography, applications.

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