Estimation of the Potential Output of Russia by the Unobserved Components Method

Student: Kostromin Artem

Faculty: St.Petersburg School of Economics and Management

Educational Programme: Economics (Bachelor)

Final Grade: 8

Year of Graduation: 2020

We seek to understand the dynamics of the indicators that determine potential GDP of Russia: capital, labor and economic performance; therefore, we calculate Russian potential GDP by the multidimensional Kalman Filter. This paper sheds light on the previous work, thus modifying the standard model of unobserved components with factors that play a significant role in the economy of Russia. According to the previous research, we expect a serious impact of the sanctions imposed against Russia and the consequences of the world crisis of 2008. These findings can be useful for the policymakers who investigate the topics connected with GDP of Russia Keywords: potential output, the Kalman filter, the Okun’s law, the Phillips curve.

Full text (added May 21, 2020)

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